A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
